Status of Cyclone Workshop 19 September 2003
12th Cyclone Workshop
21-26 September 2003 Scientific Agenda
(current as of 18 September 2003)
Far Hills Inn and Conference Center
Val Morin, Quebec, Canada
Sunday, 21 September 2003
Workshop begins with dinner
Monday, 22 September 2003
Session I: Cyclone/anticyclone life cycles and theoretical issues,
Chair: Lance F. Bosart
0830
1. A new look at anticyclogenesis. Stephen J. Colucci, (Cornell
University).
0850
2. Hodograph variability within analytically modeled
synoptic-scale baroclinic systems. Peter C. Banacos
and Howard B. Bluestein, (University of Oklahoma).
0910
3. West-Pacific wave cyclone induced by wave packets propagating
across the subtropical jet over
Southern Asia. Edmund K. M. Chang, (ITPA/MSRC, Stony Brook
University).
0930
4. Dynamical sensitivity to downstream development in an eastern
North Pacific cyclone. Richard
Danielson, (McGill University), David Straub, and John Gyakum.
0950
5. Mesoscale fine structure of extratropical cyclones. Andreas
D=F6rnbrack (DLR Oberpfaffenhofen),
Andreas Fix, Gorazd Poberaj, Gerhard Ehret, and Melvyn A. Shapiro.
1010
Break
Session I continued, Chair: John W. Nielsen-Gammon
1040
6. Carl Kreitzberg: Scientist, mentor, colleague and charter
member of the Cyclone Workshop. Robert A.
Cohen (East Stroudsburg University) and David M. Schultz.
East Stroudsburg.
1100
7. Idealized three-dimensional simulations of baroclinic waves
interacting with U. S. west coast
topography. Joseph B. Olsen (SUNY/Stony Brook) and Brian A. Colle.
1120
8. The role of the large-scale deformation field on the
evolution of extratropical cyclones during the
FASTEX period. Gwendal Rivi=E8re (CNRM, METEO-France), A.
Joly, L. Hua, and P. Klein.
1140
9. Baroclinic Zone Potpourri. David M. Schultz (CIMMS/NSSL) and
=46uqing Zhang.
1200 Lunch
Session I continued, Chair: Isidoro Orlanski
1330
10. Error-growth dynamics of moist baroclinic waves. Chris
Snyder (NCAR), Fuqing Zhang, Richard
Rotunno, and Zhe-Min Tan.
1350
11. Perturbation growth in baroclinic waves. Martha R. Stevens
(U. of Washington) and Gregory J. Hakim.
1410
12. Extracting envelopes of Rossby wave packets. Istvan Szunyogh
(U. of Maryland), A. Zimin, D. J. Patil,
B. Hunt, and E. Ott.
Session II. Tropical cyclones and extratropical transition, Chair:
Isidoro Orlanski
1430
13. An evaluation of the precipitation distribution in
landfalling tropical cyclones. Eyad H. Atallah
(SUNY/Albany) and Lance F. Bosart.
1450
Afternoon recreation
Evening session:
Chair: Huw C. Davies
2030
14. Theory and observations of tropopause vortex asymmetries.
Gregory J. Hakim (U. of Washington) and
Amelia K. Canavan.
2100
15. Bifurcation in eddy life-cycles: Implications for storm
track variability. Isidoro Orlanski (GFDL,
Princeton U.).
2130
Discussion
Tuesday, 23 September 2003
Session II. Tropical cyclones and extratropical transition (Continued)
Chair: John R. Gyakum
0830
16. Numerical simulations of the extratropical transition of
=46loyd (1999) along the U. S. east coast. Brian A.
Colle (SUNY/Stony Brook).
0850
17. Tropical cyclones of non-tropical origin. Christopher A.
Davis (NCAR) and Lance F. Bosart.
0910
18. The extratropical transitions of eastern Pacific Hurricane
Lester (1992) and Atlantic Hurricane Andrew
(1992): A comparison. Michael J. Dickinson (SUNY/Albany),
Lance Bosart, Kristen Corbosiero,
Susanna Hopsch, Kelly Lombardo, Matt Novak, Brandon Smith,
and Alicia Wasula.
0930
19. The influence of the downstream state on extratropical
transition: Hurricane Earl (1998) case study.
Ron McTaggart-Cowan (McGill U.), John R. Gyakum, and Peter Yau.
0950
Break
Session II continued, Chair: Robert E. Hart
1020
20. Synoptic composites of the extratropical transition lifecycle
of North Atlantic tropical cyclones as
defined by the cyclone phase space. Robert E. Hart (Penn
State) and Jenni L. Evans.
1040
21. Upper-level dynamical effects of a hurricane upon the
extratropical downstream evolution. Olivia
Martius (ETH) and Cornelia Schwierz.
1100
22. Research aircraft observations in ex-Hurricane Isabel (2003).
Jim Abraham (Research Directorate of the
Meteorological Service of Canada).
Session III: Diabatic heating and precipitation
Chair: Christopher A. Davis
1120
23. Climatology of precipitation associated with 500 hPa closed
lows in the Northeast United States.
Anantha Aiyyer, (SUNY/Albany), Eyad Atallah and Lance Bosart.
1140
24. A diagnostic study of the GEM operational forecast of the
European windstorm 'LOTHAR'.
Jean-Francois Caron (UQAM).
1200 Lunch
Session III continued, Chair: Christopher A. Davis
1330
25. The importance of upper-tropospheric mobile trough structure
in severe weather outbreaks. David A.
Gold (Texas A & M U.) and John W. Nielsen-Gammon.
1350
26. Impacts of the Atlantic and the Mediterranean on a heavy
precipitation episode on the Alpine southside.
Patrick Koch (ETH) and H. C. Davies.
1410
27. Diagnosis of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Northwest
Africa. Jonathan E. Martin (U. of
Wisconsin-Madison).
1430
Afternoon recreation
Evening session:
Chair: Paul A. Roebber
2030
28. On the midwinter suppression of baroclinic activity over the
North Pacific storm track. Boksoon
Myoung (Texas A & M U.) and John W. Nielsen-Gammon.
2100
29. Diabatic Rossby waves. Heini Wernli (ETH).
2130
Discussion
Wednesday, 24 September 2003
Session III: Diabatic heating and precipitation (Continued)
Chair: Gregory J. Hakim
0830
30. The importance of short-scale, diabatic modes in a moist
baroclinic atmosphere. Richard W. Moore
(Colorado State U.) and Michael T. Montgomery.
0850
31. On the role of the precipitation mass sink as a vorticity
source in heavily precipitating cyclonic systems.
Gary M. Lackmann (North Carolina State U.).
0910
32. The impact of diabatic heating structures and scales, and
model resolution on balanced-state adjustments
and numerical model spin-up in an idealized numerical
simulation. Annie Duhamel, Christian Pag=E9
(UQAM), and Peter Zwack.
0930
33. Influence of diabatic heating and orography on North Atlantic
blocking. Cornelia Schwierz (ETH), Heini
Wernli, and Huw C. Davies.
0950
Break
Session III continued, Chair: Howard B. Bluestein
1020
34. Mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) during BAMEX. Stan
Trier (NCAR) and Christopher A. Davis.
1040
35. Mesoscale processes leading to the rapid intensification of a
cool season tornadic squall line within a
larger scale cyclonic environment. Alicia C. Wasula
(SUNY/Albany), Lance F. Bosart, Russell Schneider,
Steven J. Weiss, and Robert H. Johns.
Session IV: Mesoscale precipitation structures
Chair: Daniel Keyser
1100
36. The role of antecedent precipitation in the development of
the 24-25 January 2000 cyclone. Michael J.
Brennan (North Carolina State U.) and Gary M. Lackmann.
1120
37. An observational study of cold season banded precipitation in
northeast United States cyclones. David
Novak (NWS eastern Region), Jeff Waldstreicher, Lance F.
Bosart, and Daniel Keyser
1140
38. Orographic influences on the mesoscale structure of the 1998
Ice Storm. Paul J. Roebber (U. of
Wisconsin-Milwaukee) and John R. Gyakum.
1200 Lunch
1330
39. Synoptic control of mesoscale precipitating systems in the
Pacific Northwest. Kyle Swanson (U. of
Wisconsin-Milwaukee) and Paul J. Roebber.
Session V: Fronts, cyclones and topography
Chair: Frederick Sanders
1350
40. A comparison between eastern North American and western
European fronts. Olivier Fortin (UQAM)
and Peter Zwack.
1410
41. The June 5th 1995 Great Basin wind and snowstorm. Mark
Jackson (NWS/Salt Lake City), Larry
Dunn, and W. James Steenburgh.
1430
42. Numerical simulations of cyclone interaction with the
topography of Greenland. Rebekah Martin (U. of
Toronto) and G. W. K. Moore.
1450
Afternoon recreation
Evening Session:
Chair: Heini Wernli
2030
43. Characteristics of European windstorms. Tim Hewson (Met. Office, UK).
2100
44. A societal/economic impact perspective of Rossby wave-train
propagation for the extreme
northern-hemispheric weather events of November 2002. Melvyn
A. Shapiro (NCAR).
2130
Discussion
Thursday, 25 September 2003
Session V: Fronts, cyclones and topography (Continued)
Chair: David M. Schultz
0830
45. Real front or baroclinic trough. Frederick Sanders (MIT, Marblehead).
0850
46. An example of a major midlatitude cyclogenesis event over the
intermountain region of the western
United States. Jason C. Shafer (U. of Utah).
0910
47. Intermountain cyclogenesis and frontal evolution: What we
know and what we don't. W. James
Steenburgh (U. of Utah).
0930
48. Lower-tropospheric fronts with the leading edge of cold
advection aloft. Mark T. Stoelinga (U. of
Washington), John D. Locatelli, and Peter V. Hobbs.
0950
Break
Session V continued, Chair: Jonathan E. Martin
1020
49. The composite structure and evolution of Alberta Clippers.
Blaine C. Thomas (U. of
Wisconsin-Madison) and Jonathan E. Martin.
1040
50. Generation of mesoscale gravity waves in upper-tropospheric
jet-front systems. Fuqing Zhang (Texas
A & M U.).
Session VI: Large-Scale Issues
Chair: Gary M. Lackmann
1100
51. Planetary and synoptic scale interactions in southeast
Pacific blocking using potential vorticity
diagnostics. Anthony R. Lupo (U. of Missouri), John P.
Burkhardt, and Erin K. Gilliland.
1120
52. A comparison of vertical motions obtained from different
forms of the omega equation. Christopher
Melick (Purdue U.) and Phillip J. Smith.
1140
53. Discussion
1200 Lunch
1330
54. Large-scale modulation of subtropical cyclone frequency in
the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Jason
A. Otkin (U. of Wisconsin-Madison) and Jonathan E. Martin.
Session VII: Forecasting/Applications
Chair: Tim Hewson
1350
55. From mm to cm...Study of snow/liquid ratios over Quebec.
Ivan Dub=E9 (MSC/Quebec Region).
1410
56. Adjoint sensitivity analysis - a practical diagnostic in a
synoptician's tool chest. Daryl T. Kleist (U. of
Wisconsin - Madison) and Michael C. Morgan.
1430
57. An overview of forecasting extratropical cyclones at the NCEP
Ocean Prediction Center. Joseph M.
Sienkiewicz (NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center).
1450
Afternoon recreation
Evening Session: Wild card discussion
Chair: Melvyn A. Shapiro
2030
=46riday, 26 September 2003
Session VII: Forecasting/Applications (Continued), Chair: W. James Steenbur=
gh
0900
58. Using the National Weather Service Weather Event Simulator to
train operational forecasters in
cold-season cyclone prediction. Paul A. Sisson
(NWS/Burlington, VT) and John R. Gyakum.
0925
59. DIONYSOS: A fully balanced diagnostic system for studying
weather systems. Jean-Francois Caron,
Peter Zwack (UQAM), and C. Pag=E9.
Session VIII: Ensembles, Initialization and data assimilation,
=46orecast errors, Chair: Peter Zwack
0950
60. Major numerical forecast failures of west coast storms. Lynn
McMurdie (U. of Washington) and Cliff
Mass.
1015
Break
Session VIII continued, Chair: Paul A. Sisson
1035
61. The role of initial condition error in the February 7, 2002
Oregon cyclone forecast bust. Brian Ancell (U.
of Washington).
1100
62. The evaluation of NCEP short-range ensemble forecasts for
winter storms. Briana J. Gordon (Cornell
U.) and Stephen J. Colucci.
1125
63. 4DVAR Data Assimilation of satellite-derived winds in
simulations of poorly-forecast cyclones during
PACJET. Katherine M. La Casse (U. of Wisconsin-Madison) and
Michael C. Morgan.
1150
Wrap-up discussion and closing ceremony
12:00 Lunch and Farewell